Trying to estimate the cost, part 2

This is a continuation from part 1.

So, last week I got a little distracted, in my stream of conscious writing style, with listing out a bunch of things that my band, Hidden Number, did for a record release. My intent was to show that there was a lot to do, and how it really helped to know how much time, resources, and money took to do each task. We likely could have done some things differently when it came to the promotional side of things, but I try not to get into that stuff with my blog. And so I want to follow up again with some more ruminations on costing in reference to art.

So here’s an example. If you were considering taking on learning to play a new song, here are some things you might consider:

  1. How complex is the song? How many grooves, how many stops, how complex is the voicing, is there a tag at the end, etc.?
  2. How complex are those parts?
  3. Do I have the technical ability, or will I need to first learn how to technically pull something off?
  4. Can I just sort of wing it in places? How much improv is there?
  5. Are charts provided for me? Or will I need to transcribe charts? How much of it actually requires transcription?
  6. Is there reference audio? Does it actually match the form of the song?
  7. Is there a rehearsal? Regular rehearsals? Sectionals?
  8. How much travel is required to rehearsals and performances?
  9. How much time do I have free?
  10. Will I have to be ready before the first rehearsal? What level of quality is expected from me at various parts of the project?
  11. What level of quality is expected during the performance(s)?
  12. Can I have sheet music at the performance(s), or must it be memorized?
  13. What’s the compensation for all of this? What’s the benefit for doing it?

The more of a beginner you are, the more conscious you need to be about these questions. Conversely, I’ll bet the priorities of these questions change over time, as you gain experience and as your impact changes. I rarely think about this entire specific song-learning process all the way through anymore, so just now I was surprised as I kept thinking of more factors to consider. There are a lot of factors! What did I leave out?

Anyway, sometimes you have to make a quick decision about this kind of thing. You’ll want to trust your intuition on this. But let me warn you: you can only trust your intuition if it’s backed by conscious experience. Otherwise, intuition is just a wild guess. As for myself, I know I forget about some of these 12 questions sometimes, and I’ll bet I even left some off. I trust my intuition on this quite a bit. But I play a lot of live shows. What if someone asked me to compose a soundtrack? Well, back to square one–I’d never trust my intuition for costing that. I’d ask friends about how long it took them to compose a soundtrack, and then I’d double or triple the estimated time so that I can deliver something that I’m proud of. So, I should probably start preparing for this opportunity in advance so that I can intelligently make a good estimate!

Or, imagine you agreed to do a bunch of different things over a period of time. Now the errors in your estimates are compounding. The more you sign up for, the more of a chance that you are biting off more than you can chew, and the more sleepless nights you end up busting your butt. The more varied things you are doing, the more of a chance that you goofed in costing. So, add buffer. In the software industry, I learned to first estimate the cost–and then double the estimate. Make sure you leave room for the unexpected, including unpredictable external factors. And make sure to account for your unrealistic optimism about the difficulty of the project. Because, come on! You want to do it so bad! You want to tell people it will be easy! But it isn’t actually easy, is it? At least be honest with yourself.

Costing impacts what you can sign up to do, but remember this: if you want to have a big impact with your art, then it is almost certain that others are depending on you–and you want to deliver more than you promised, right? Especially when it comes to your fans.

ABC: Always Be Costing.

(Next week, I’ll talk about other benefits of costing, beyond just being trustworthy. And maybe tell some personal horror stories.)

Update: Here’s part 3.

Trying to estimate the cost, part 1

Two years ago, when Hidden Number released our second album, Burn Alive, we wanted to have a bad ass release party. But that meant lining up some good bands, confirming with a good venue, and finishing the record in time. Not so easy, especially considering we were thinking about this before we had finished mixing and mastering. And we didn’t even have artwork. Getting all the moving parts to fit together at the right moment would turn out to be brutal.

We started regular weekly meetings, and we started tracking everything that had to be done to reach the goal. We found an artist, Chris Unruh, who agreed to do an amazing piece of artwork… for free. That meant, he was doing it on his spare time. The best we could do was get a guess from him when the art would be ready, so we doubled that amount of time. Then we worked out how long the album would take to get mixed down. Dean was working tirelessly on the tracks, and so we worked out how long one track took and multiplied that out by the number of songs… and then doubled that number. Both dates aligned. So far so good. Next, we estimated how long it would take to actually raise the funds so we could pay Morphius in time. It seemed doable. Then we worked out when we could schedule mastering, and how long it would take for Morphius to press the records and deliver them. Lastly, we set to work on finding a venue and some bands to play with us.

But there was more. We wanted to sweeten the pot for the pre-orders. So, we decided it was time to release the rules and dice for the Hidden Number board game, which we would include with purchase. More scheduling of how to hand-make the scrolls and dice. And we wanted to include a poster as an insert. Luckily, Calla Donofrio was kind enough to provide a stunning collage. Oh, and we needed to start a mailing list, so that we could have a drawing to give away a free record. Plus, estimate when (and how) to offer up pre-orders with a sample track. Plus, we needed regular updates to the website, on the progress of it all.

Still not enough. How much could we pack into the schedule without going insane? We wanted to give our fans free download codes on purchase of the record. So we called up Morphius yet again, to work out all the custom work to include our inserts and our unique codes. The milestones had to change again. And there were only four of us to manage it all.

Here’s what I’m getting at: All of these costs (of time, money, and resources) were estimated, and there were dependencies. How could we be sure that any of this would work out?

Because we had been practicing. This was our second record release. We already learned the hard lessons of having unknown costs, and so we were paying attention. And when it was something new or unknown, we doubled our estimate. And we checked in weekly on the status of every moving part. Everyone in the band had a job to do.

I can’t stress enough how important it is to pay attention to the time it is taking you to do the important things in your life, to pay attention to the resources that are required, and to the financial hit. For you will be called upon to make predictions. If you are ever in doubt, make sure to build in checkpoints where you can re-assess everything. And don’t create dependencies until you are sure that your margin of error is low. Practice estimating now, so that you will be good at it when it really matters.

Yeah, it turns out that we goofed on some of our estimate for how long it would take to make the record, but we had already built in padding in the schedule and we knew we should wait a little before booking a venue. And then the night arrived, and we had our records just in the nick of time, and we got to play with Smooth Sailing (who did us a major favor there, by the way) at the Comet, and it was an awesome party. We even had cupcakes.

They won’t teach you how to estimate costs in school. So, you need to get started now, before it’s too late. Your job and your art will depend on it.

Update: This is a popular topic, so I’m going to add a part 2 next week. Stay tuned! Thanks for the discussion!

Update 2: Here’s part 2.

Trying to know when to stop

Stopping is lame. And the more we pour our souls into the art, the harder it is to stop. I’m not talking about knowing when to finish a song–that’s hard enough. But knowing when to end an entire project is agony. Looking back, there even were times when it was like I was brainwashed in a cult.

And early on in my life as a drummer, I let some things wind down rather than try to keep them going. I probably shouldn’t have let that happen, but I lacked perspective. And that was painful too. I look back on it knowing that things were actually better than I thought, and so I let others down.

There are so many things to consider. The art, the fans, the business, your own happiness, the happiness of others…. And so I come to the point where I feel like I must quit Shiplosion. This is some uncharted territory for me, because I think that I need to clear up some time for future paying gigs. And I wasn’t feeling like I was inside the music. I love playing the drums on these songs, and have a blast at shows–so, yet again, this is painful and I am second guessing myself. Am I giving up too early? Is this the right long term choice? Am I quiting something on the verge of blowing up? Well, I think they need a drummer who is more at home with the music, so I hope it was right for me to step aside to give them a better chance. Frankly, I think I was holding them back.

I’m just grateful that they took it so well. We had a really good talk about it, and it seemed like we all understood what was what.

Well, I’ve been through this pain enough times now, having played in quite a few different situations, that I really hope this will turn out okay for everyone. As for myself, I hope this recent set of one-off paying gigs will continue to be a regular thing! And I hope that really is the right situation for me. Time will tell…

So the lesson here, is that I think that you need to play in a lot of situations with a lot of different people before you have enough perspective about what projects are really the right ones for you. And then the idea is that you will be able to justify walking away. Otherwise, you’ll leave far too early and regret it later, or you will just be spinning your wheels and wasting everyone’s time.

You are being replaced by a robot

There’s a really interesting article about how robots will continue to take our jobs. Basically anything repetitive is a target for being replaced by robots. The author points out that a robot doesn’t have to be as good as a human. It can be “good enough”, because it’s cheaper in the long term. For large corporations, this is how you compete. In software, automation is what separates good engineers from great (and lazy) engineers.

In the 1980’s, drummers were hit by the automation of digital percussion. A real cowbell was replaced by the 808 cowbell. A more human shuffle feel was replaced by abstract straight time with digital drums. Those changes were good enough for the gate keepers of the major studios and radio. The revolution was not only a new aesthetic of music, but it had the promise of cheaper music production. These days, we look back fondly on much of that as retro. Well, I certainly do. ;)

There are some good lessons here. For one, the digital revolution of the 80s was an example of how anything repetitive will be replaced by automation, i.e. robots. If it’s repetitive, a robot will learn to do it eventually. Today, even bands like Captured by Robots have actual physical robots replicating analog music in a live context. The songs are written, so why not automate them? It’s human nature to solve challenges to free our minds for more difficult ones. This is no different. Nothing wrong with that.

So we drummers have to remember what it means to be a human drummer. What sets us apart. What cannot be automated… yet. So let’s not fool ourselves: the shuffle feel is back in EDM. We’re starting to figure out how to automate the “soul” of a good drum feel. And at the moment, rock music is dying. Jazz has leveled out. Drums are turning into a folk instrument. EDM is the new reality, where one or two DJs automate all of it. We are becoming folk musicians.

We have to be smart now. If we want to play drums, we have to stay ahead of the robots, or differentiate. But how?

Do we learn to play like them? Probably. We certainly can’t be as technically proficient. So then what? Embrace chaos, randomness, entropy? Learn a song quicker than it takes to program for a one-off event? Become amazing performers, showing off feats of strength, coordination, and endurance? Become great improvisers? Write and perform music on the spot? Become seductive in both our looks and personalities? Have interactive performances? What else?

Or we evolve, and become drum robot managers.

FolkLife 2013 — Monday

Here’s what’s going down today:

2pm — Klezmer jam, starting on the east side of Key Arena. We’re just gonna wing it with whomever shows up and play what we feel like or what you request.

3:30pm — Radost Folk Ensemble. Dance and music of Eastern Europe.

5:50pm — Zakuska. Vocal music from the Balkans

7:30pm — Fabulous Downey Brothers. Insane, frenetic new wave rock performance art.

… and then… sleep.

FolkLife Schedule

FolkLife 2013 — Sunday

Ooops, I’m posting this too late! On Saturday night, I ended up at a friends house and played music far into the night… then in the morning it was a mad rush to get to FolkLife–and my phone battery died. At any rate, here’s what all transpired!

3pm — Not on the online schedule, we checked out the Tom Lehrer sing-a-long! Some of the most snarky, sarcastic songs you’ve heard. Written ahead of their time.

4pm — Bulgarian showcase. Too much going on to mention it all. I was most impressed by Vladimir Mollov’s accordion awesomness. He started so very quietly, and then controlled our emotions like robots the rest of the performance with his mastery of dynamics and intonation. And it was pretty cool that Xti got to play darbuka with him! And we were all enthralled by the Bulgarian voices of Dunava.

7pm — Headed over to the Center House (now called the Armory??) for dancing into the night with Kef, Kafana Republik, more enrapturing Vladimir Mollov, and many others.

10pm — Afterparty time at the Sarajevo Lounge. Got to jam out and dance with so many folks from various Balkan bands in the area. This is a great, friendly community.

FolkLife 2013 – Saturday

Wow, tonight was insane. Looking forward to part 2 tomorrow!

Okay, here’s what we got for FolkLife Festival on Saturday, May 25, 2013.

 

1:40pm — Les Pamplemousses hit the stage to play music from the earlier part of the 20th century. Facebook. Video.

6pm — Balkan Misfits Party. I’ll be playing with Bucharest Drinking Team, and we get to share the stage with our good friends Orkestar Zirkonium, Erev Rav, and Chervona! FolkLife blog post.

10pm — The afterparties begin! First, the Klezmer FolkLife Afterparty at Re-Bar! Local klez artists The Debaucherauntes (fusion), and the legendary Nu Klezmer Army (trad), are proud to welcome special guests Fleet Street Klezmer Band, hailing all the way from Boise. Facebook.

 

… and then… ???

 

FolkLife Schedule

FolkLife 2013 — Friday

Okay, here’s the rundown for FolkLife tonight, Friday, May 24, 2013:

6pm — Check out OneFourFive. There is a facebook event. onefourfive will sing a cappella songs from Caucasus Georgia

7pm — Head over to DuBorziLanza. Indeed, there is a facebook event as well. They will play a set of sinister love songs and morose prison ballads from the south side of Italy.

8pm — The afterparties get started! First, I’ll be playing with Bucharest Drinking Team, and we’ll be joined by many of our good friends! Including Chervona and Erev Rav! Yes, indeed the facebook event is there for you.

Then… ???

Stay tuned for Saturday’s schedule!

Edit >> You can create your own schedule and see what your friends are doing this weekend. Cool stuff. See you there!

 

 

Kocani

Tonight, I went to see Kocani. They quieted down, so we bought another ticket. And then we decided to buy one more. Because they are that good. One of the amazing traditions that is surprisingly missing from American rock music, is to keep tipping the musicians so that they’ll stay and keep rocking!! What a concept. And I was so happy to do it, because Kocani is one of the best brass bands in the world.

And tomorrow, I go to Vancouver to see them again, and again! Am I living in a simulation? I feel like I’m about to flip this game.

p.s. sorry for my site being down over the past few days. I freaked out, thinking I had been hacked, but turns out it was a false alarm. At any rate, things seem to be back to normal now… mostly…